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Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises the question of how well models generalize under performativity. For example, how well can we draw insights about new app users based on existing users when both of them react to the app's predictions? We address this question by embedding performative predictions into statistical learning theory. We prove generalization bounds under performative effects on the sample, on the population, and on both. A key intuition behind our proofs is that in the worst case, the population negates predictions, while the sample deceptively fulfills them. We cast such self-negating and self-fulfilling predictions as min-max and min-min risk functionals in Wasserstein space, respectively. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off between performatively changing the world and learning from it: the more a model affects data, the less it can learn from it. Moreover, our analysis results in a surprising insight on how to improve generalization guarantees by retraining on performatively distorted samples. We illustrate our bounds in a case study on prediction-informed assignments of unemployed German residents to job trainings, drawing upon administrative labor market records from 1975 to 2017 in Germany.

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These instances range from active learning over multi-armed bandits to self-training. We show that all these algorithms not only learn parameters from data but also vice versa: They iteratively alter training data in a way that depends on the current model fit. We introduce reciprocal learning as a generalization of these algorithms using the language of decision theory. This allows us to study under what conditions they converge.

Hallucinations are outputs by Large Language Models (LLMs) that are factually incorrect yet appear plausible [1]. This paper investigates how such hallucinations influence users' trust in LLMs and users' interaction with LLMs. To explore this in everyday use, we conducted a qualitative study with 192 participants. Our findings show that hallucinations do not result in blanket mistrust but instead lead to context-sensitive trust calibration. Building on the calibrated trust model by Lee & See [2] and Afroogh et al.'s trust-related factors [3], we confirm expectancy [3], [4], prior experience [3], [4], [5], and user expertise & domain knowledge [3], [4] as userrelated (human) trust factors, and identify intuition as an additional factor relevant for hallucination detection. Additionally, we found that trust dynamics are further influenced by contextual factors, particularly perceived risk [3] and decision stakes [6]. Consequently, we validate the recursive trust calibration process proposed by Blöbaum [7] and extend it by including intuition as a user-related trust factor. Based on these insights, we propose practical recommendations for responsible and reflective LLM use.

As AI-based code generation becomes widespread, researchers are investigating the calibration of code LLMs - ensuring their confidence scores faithfully represent the true likelihood of code correctness. To do so, we investigate multicalibration, which can capture additional factors about a coding problem, such as complexity, code length, or programming language used. We study four multicalibration approaches on three function synthesis benchmarks, using latest-generation code LLMs (Qwen3 Coder, GPT-OSS, DeepSeek-R1-Distill). Our results demonstrate that multicalibration can yield distinct improvements over both uncalibrated token likelihoods (+1.03 in skill score) and baseline calibrations (+0.37 in skill score). We study the influence of the aforementioned factors in ablations, and make our dataset (consisting of code generations, likelihoods, and correctness labels) available for future research on code LLM calibration.

The reliable operation of autonomous vehicles, automated driving functions, and advanced driver assistance systems across a wide range of relevant scenarios is critical for their development and deployment. Identifying a near-complete set of relevant driving scenarios for such functionalities is challenging due to numerous degrees of freedom involved, each affecting the outcomes of the driving scenario differently. Moreover, with increasing technical complexity of new functionalities, the number of potentially relevant, particularly "unknown unsafe" scenarios is increasing. To enhance validation efficiency, it is essential to identify relevant scenarios in advance, starting with simpler domains like highways before moving to more complex environments such as urban traffic. To address this, this paper focuses on analyzing lane change scenarios in highway traffic, which involve multiple degrees of freedom and present numerous safetyrelevant scenarios. We describe the process of data acquisition and processing of real-world data from public highway traffic, followed by the application of criticality measures on trajectory data to evaluate scenarios, as conducted within the AVEAS project (www.aveas.org). By linking the calculated measures to specific lane change driving scenarios and the conditions under which the data was collected, we facilitate the identification of safetyrelevant driving scenarios for various applications. Further, to tackle the extensive range of "unknown unsafe" scenarios, we propose a way to generate relevant scenarios by creating synthetic scenarios based on recorded ones. Consequently, we demonstrate and evaluate a processing chain that enables the identification of safety-relevant scenarios, the development of data-driven methods for extracting these scenarios, and the generation of synthetic critical scenarios via sampling on highways.